IEA (2023), Global Electric Vehicle Outlook 2023, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2023, License: CC BY 4.0
Despite supply chain disruptions, macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, and high commodity and energy prices, electric vehicle sales1 will reach another all-time high in 2022. The growth in sales of electric vehicles comes against the backdrop of a shrinking global car market: total car sales in 2022 will be 3% lower than in 2021. Electric vehicle sales, including battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), exceeded 10 million last year, up 55% from 2021.2. This figure – 10 million electric vehicles sold worldwide – exceeds the total number of cars sold in the entire EU (about 9.5 million) and almost half of all cars sold in the EU. Car sales in China in 2022. In just five years, from 2017 to 2022, electric vehicle sales jumped from around 1 million to over 10 million. It used to take five years, from 2012 to 2017, for EV sales to go from 100,000 to 1 million, highlighting the exponential nature of EV sales growth. The share of electric vehicles in total vehicle sales jumped from 9% in 2021 to 14% in 2022, more than 10 times their share in 2017.
The increase in sales will bring the total number of electric vehicles on the world’s roads to 26 million, up 60% from 2021, with pure electric vehicles accounting for more than 70% of the annual increase, as in previous years. As a result, by 2022, about 70% of the global electric vehicle fleet will be exclusively electric vehicles. In absolute terms, sales growth between 2021 and 2022 will be as high as between 2020 and 2021 – an increase of 3.5 million vehicles – but the relative growth is lower (sales will double between 2020 and 2021). The extraordinary boom in 2021 may be due to the electric vehicle market catching up after the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic. Compared to previous years, the annual growth rate of electric vehicle sales in 2022 is similar to the average growth rate in 2015-2018, and the annual growth rate of global electric vehicle ownership in 2022 is similar to the growth rate in 2021 and beyond. In the period 2015-2018. The electric vehicle market is rapidly returning to pre-pandemic speeds.
Growth in EV sales varied by region and powertrain, but continued to be dominated by the People’s Republic of China (“China”). In 2022, electric vehicle sales in China will increase by 60% compared to 2021 to 4.4 million, and plug-in hybrid vehicle sales will nearly triple to 1.5 million. The faster growth of PHEV sales compared to BEV merits further study in the coming years as PHEV sales remain weak overall and are now likely to catch up with the post-Covid-19 boom; EV sales tripled from 2020 to 2021. Even though total car sales in 2022 are down 3% from 2021, EV sales are still on the rise.
China accounts for almost 60% of new electric vehicle registrations in the world. In 2022, for the first time, China will account for more than 50% of the total number of electric vehicles on the world’s roads, which will amount to 13.8 million vehicles. This strong growth is the result of more than a decade of continuous policy support for early adopters, including the extension until the end of 2022 of shopping incentives originally scheduled to end in 2020 due to Covid-19, in addition to proposals such as Charging Infrastructure Rapid rollout in China and a strict registration policy for non-electric vehicles.
The share of electric vehicles in total car sales in China’s domestic market will reach 29% by 2022, up from 16% in 2021 and below 6% between 2018 and 2020. Thus, China has achieved its national goal of achieving a 20 percent share of electric vehicle sales by 2025. – Call New Energy Vehicle (NEV)3 in advance. All indicators point to further growth: although the Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), which is in charge of the automotive industry, has not yet updated its national NEV sales targets, the target for further electrification of road transport has been confirmed for next year. 2019. Several strategic documents. China aims to achieve a 50 percent share of sales in so-called “key air pollution abatement areas” and a 40 percent share of sales nationwide by 2030 to support a national action plan to peak carbon emissions. If recent market trends continue, China’s 2030 target could be reached sooner. Provincial governments are also supporting the implementation of NEV, and so far 18 provinces have set NEV targets.
Regional support in China has also helped develop some of the world’s largest electric vehicle manufacturers. Headquartered in Shenzhen, BYD supplies most of the city’s electric buses and taxis, and its leadership is also reflected in Shenzhen’s ambition to achieve a 60 percent share of new energy vehicle sales by 2025. Guangzhou aims to achieve a 50% share of new energy vehicle sales by 2025, helping Xpeng Motors expand and become one of the leaders in electric vehicles in the country.
It remains unclear whether China’s share of EV sales will remain well above the 20% target in 2023, as sales are likely to be particularly strong as stimulus is expected to be phased out by the end of 2022. Sales in January 2023 dropped significantly, although this was partly due to the timing of the Lunar New Year, and compared to January 2022, they were down by almost 10%. However, in February and March 2023, EV sales will catch up, which is almost 60% higher than in February 2022 and more than 25% higher than in February 2022. higher than sales in March 2022, resulting in sales in the first quarter of 2023 more than 20% higher than in the first quarter of 2022.
In Europe4, sales of electric vehicles in 2022 will grow by more than 15% compared to 2021, reaching 2.7 million units. Sales growth has been faster in previous years, with an annual growth rate of over 65% in 2021 and an average growth rate of 40% in 2017-2019. In 2022, BEV sales will grow by 30% compared to 2021 (up 65% in 2021 compared to 2020), while plug-in hybrid sales will decrease by about 3%. Europe accounted for 10% of global growth in sales of new electric vehicles. Despite slowing growth in 2022, electric vehicle sales in Europe are still growing amid the continued contraction of the auto market, with total car sales in Europe in 2022 down 3% compared to 2021.
The slowdown in Europe compared to previous years partly reflects the exceptional growth in EU electric vehicle sales in 2020 and 2021 as manufacturers quickly adjust their corporate strategies to meet adopted CO2 emission standards in 2019. The standards cover the period 2020-2024, with EU-wide emission targets only getting tougher from 2025 and 2030.
High energy prices in 2022 will have complex implications for the competitiveness of electric vehicles versus internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Gasoline and diesel prices for internal combustion vehicles have skyrocketed, but in some cases, residential electricity bills (related to charging) have also risen. Higher electricity and gas prices are also pushing up the cost of producing internal combustion engines and electric vehicles, and some automakers believe high energy prices could limit future investment in new battery capacity.
By 2022, Europe will remain the world’s second largest EV market after China, accounting for 25% of total EV sales and 30% of global ownership. The share of electric vehicle sales will reach 21% compared to 18% in 2021, 10% in 2020 and below 3% by 2019. European countries continue to rank high in the share of EV sales, with Norway leading the way with 88%, Sweden with 54%, the Netherlands with 35%, Germany with 31%, the UK with 23% and France with 21% by 2022. Germany is Europe’s largest market by sales volume, with sales of 830,000 in 2022, followed by the UK with 370,000 and France with 330,000. Sales in Spain also topped 80,000. The share of electric vehicles in total vehicle sales in Germany increased by tenfold compared to pre-Covid-19, due in part to increased post-pandemic support such as Umweltbonus purchase incentives, as well as pre-sales expected from 2023 to 2022. Starting this year, subsidies will be further reduced. However, in Italy, EV sales have fallen from 140,000 in 2021 to 115,000 in 2022, while Austria, Denmark and Finland have also seen declines or stagnation.
Sales in Europe are expected to continue to grow, especially following recent policy changes under the Fit for 55 program. The new rules set stricter CO2 emission standards for 2030-2034 and aim to reduce CO2 emissions from new cars and vans by 100% from 2035 compared to 2021 levels. In the short term, incentives running between 2025 and 2029 will reward manufacturers that achieve a 25% share of vehicle sales (17% for vans) for zero or low emission vehicles. In the first two months of 2023, electric vehicle sales grew by more than 30% year-on-year, while total vehicle sales increased by just over 10% year-on-year.
In the US, EV sales will grow by 55% in 2022 compared to 2021, with EVs alone leading the way. Electric vehicle sales rose 70% to almost 800,000 units, marking the second year of strong growth after the 2019-2020 decline. Plug-in hybrid sales also rose, albeit by only 15%. Growth in U.S. electric vehicle sales is particularly strong given that total vehicle sales in 2022 are down 8% from 2021, well above the global average of -3%. Overall, the US accounted for 10 percent of global sales growth. The total number of electric vehicles will reach 3 million, which is 40% more than in 2021, which will be 10% of the total number of electric vehicles in the world. Electric vehicles accounted for nearly 8% of total vehicle sales, up from just over 5% in 2021 and about 2% between 2018 and 2020.
A number of factors contribute to increased sales in the US. More affordable models beyond those offered by historic leader Tesla could help close the supply gap. With big companies like Tesla and General Motors hitting the subsidy ceiling in previous years with support from the United States, other companies’ launches of new models means more consumers could benefit from up to $7,500 in shopping incentives. As governments and businesses move toward electrification, awareness is growing: by 2022, one in four Americans expect their next car to be electric, according to the AAA. While charging infrastructure and travel distance have improved in recent years, they remain a significant challenge for drivers in the US, given the generally long distances, low penetration, and limited availability of alternatives such as rail. However, in 2021, the bipartisan infrastructure law increased support for electric vehicle charging by allocating US$5 billion in total between 2022 and 2026 through the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Formula Program and adopting the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Program by allocating US$2.5 billion in in the form of competitive grants. Discretionary Charging and Refueling Infrastructure Financing Scheme.
The acceleration in sales growth is likely to continue into 2023 and beyond, thanks to a recent new support policy (see Electric Vehicle Deployment Outlook). The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has sparked a global drive by electric vehicle companies to expand manufacturing operations in the US. Between August 2022 and March 2023, major electric vehicle and battery manufacturers announced a cumulative $52 billion investment in the electric vehicle supply chain in North America, of which 50% was used for battery production, while battery components and electric vehicle production accounted for about 20 billion US dollars. billion US dollars.%. Overall, the company’s announcements included initial commitments to invest in the future of U.S. battery and electric vehicle manufacturing, totaling about $7.5 billion to $108 billion. Tesla, for example, plans to move its Gigafactory lithium-ion battery plant in Berlin to Texas, where it will partner with China’s CATL to produce next-generation electric vehicles in Mexico. Ford also announced an agreement with the Ningde Times to build a Michigan battery plant and plans to increase electric vehicle production six times by the end of 2023 compared to 2022, reaching 600,000 vehicles per year and increasing production to 2 million vehicles by the end of 2022. of the year. 2026. BMW plans to expand electric vehicle production at its South Carolina plant after the IRA. Volkswagen has chosen Canada for its first battery plant outside of Europe, due to begin operations in 2027, and is investing $2 billion in a plant in South Carolina. While these investments are expected to lead to strong growth in the coming years, their full impact may not be felt until 2024, when the plant goes online.
In the short term, the IRA limited the requirements for participation in purchase benefits, as vehicles must be made in North America to be eligible for the subsidy. However, EV sales have remained strong since August 2022 and the first few months of 2023 will be no exception, with EV sales up 60% in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022, which was likely affected by the cancellation January 2023 Producer subsidy cuts. This means that models from market leaders can now enjoy discounts when buying. In the long term, the list of models eligible for the subsidy is expected to expand.
The first signs of sales in the first quarter of 2023 point to optimism, bolstered by lower costs and increased political support in key markets such as the US. So, with over 2.3 million electric vehicles already sold in the first quarter of this year, we expect electric vehicle sales to reach 14 million in 2023. This means that sales of electric vehicles in 2023 will grow by 35% compared to 2022, and the share of global sales of electric vehicles will increase from 14% in 2022 to about 18%.
Electric vehicle sales in the first three months of 2023 are showing signs of strong growth compared to the same period in 2022. In the US, more than 320,000 electric vehicles will be sold in the first quarter of 2023, up 60% from the same period in 2022. Same period in 2022. We currently expect this growth to continue throughout the year, with electric vehicle sales exceeding 1.5 million units in 2023, resulting in an estimated 12% share of U.S. electric vehicle sales in 2023.
In China, EV sales started poorly in 2023, with January sales down 8% from January 2022. The latest available data shows that EV sales are recovering rapidly, with China’s EV sales up over 20% in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the first quarter of 2022, with more than 1.3 million EVs registered. We expect the overall favorable cost structure for EVs to outweigh the impact of phasing out EV subsidies through the end of 2023. As a result, we currently expect EV sales in China to grow by more than 30% compared to 2022, reaching approximately 8 million units by the end of 2023, with a sales share of over 35% (29% in 2022).
Electric vehicle sales growth in Europe is expected to be the lowest of the three markets, driven by recent trends and tighter CO2 emissions targets that will not come into effect until 2025 at the earliest. In the first quarter of 2023, electric vehicle sales in Europe will grow by about 10% compared to the same period in 2022. We expect EV sales to grow by more than 25% for the full year, with one in four cars sold in Europe being electric.
Outside of the mainstream EV market, EV sales are expected to reach around 900,000 in 2023, up 50% from 2022. Electric vehicle sales in India in the first quarter of 2023 are already twice as high as in the same period in 2022. Relatively small, but still growing.
Of course, there are downside risks to the outlook for 2023: a global economic downturn and China’s phasing out of NEV subsidies could dampen growth in global electric vehicle sales in 2023. On the positive side, new markets could open up earlier than expected as persistently high gasoline prices necessitate electric vehicles in more regions. New political developments, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) April 2023 proposal to tighten greenhouse gas emissions standards for vehicles, could signal a rise in sales before they go into effect.
The electrification race is increasing the number of electric vehicle models available on the market. In 2022, the number of options available will reach 500, compared to less than 450 in 2021 and more than double that of 2018-2019. As in previous years, China has the widest product portfolio with nearly 300 models available, double the number in 2018-2019 before the Covid-19 pandemic. That number is still nearly double that of Norway, the Netherlands, Germany, Sweden, France and the UK, which each have around 150 models to choose from, more than three times the pre-pandemic figure. Fewer than 100 models will be available in the US in 2022, but twice as many as before the pandemic; in Canada, Japan, and South Korea, 30 or less are available.
Trends for 2022 reflect the growing maturity of the electric vehicle market and indicate that automakers are responding to growing consumer demand for electric vehicles. However, the number of available EV models is still well below conventional combustion engine vehicles, staying above 1,250 since 2010 and peaking at 1,500 in the middle of the last decade. Sales of internal combustion engine models have steadily declined in recent years, with a CAGR of -2% between 2016 and 2022, reaching about 1,300 units in 2022. This decline varies across major automotive markets and is the most significant. This is especially evident in China, where the number of ICE options available in 2022 is 8% lower than in 2016, compared to 3-4% in the US and Europe over the same period. This may be due to the reduction of the car market and the gradual transition of large automakers to electric vehicles. In the future, if automakers focus on electrification and continue to sell existing ICE models rather than increase development budgets for new ones, the total number of existing ICE models may remain stable, while the number of new models will decrease.
The availability of electric vehicle models is growing rapidly compared to internal combustion engine models, with a CAGR of 30% in 2016-2022. In emerging markets, this growth is to be expected as a large number of new entrants bring innovative products to market and incumbents diversify their product portfolios. Growth has been somewhat lower in recent years, around 25% annually in 2021 and 15% in 2022. Model numbers are expected to continue to grow rapidly in the future as major automakers expand their EV portfolios and new entrants strengthen their foothold, especially in emerging markets and developing countries (EMDEs). The historical number of ICE models available on the market suggests that the current number of EV options could at least double before leveling off.
A major problem in the global automotive market (with both electric vehicles and internal combustion engines) is the overwhelming dominance of SUVs and large models in the market for affordable options. Automakers can earn higher revenues from such models due to the higher rate of return, which can cover part of the investment in the development of electric vehicles. In some cases, such as the US, larger vehicles can also benefit from less stringent fuel economy standards, which encourages automakers to slightly increase the size of a vehicle to qualify as light trucks.
However, the larger models are more expensive, creating major accessibility issues across the board, especially in emerging markets and developing countries. Larger models also have implications for sustainability and supply chains as they use larger batteries that require more important minerals. In 2022, the sales-weighted average battery size for small electric vehicles will range from 25 kWh in China to 35 kWh in France, Germany and the UK, and around 60 kWh in the US. For comparison, average consumption in these countries is around 70–75 kWh for purely electric SUVs and in the range of 75–90 kWh for larger models.
Regardless of vehicle size, switching from combustion engines to electric power is a top priority in achieving zero emissions targets, but mitigating the impact of larger batteries is also important. By 2022, in France, Germany and the UK, the weighted average sales weight of purely electric SUVs will be 1.5 times that of conventional small electric vehicles requiring more steel, aluminum and plastic; twice as many off-road batteries requiring approximately 75% more key minerals. CO2 emissions associated with material handling, manufacturing and assembly are expected to increase by more than 70%.
At the same time, electric SUVs could cut oil consumption by more than 150,000 barrels per day by 2022 and avoid exhaust emissions associated with fuel combustion in internal combustion engines. While electric SUVs will account for about 35% of all electric passenger cars (PLDVs) by 2022, their share of fuel emissions will be even higher (about 40%) because SUVs tend to be used more than small cars. Sure, smaller vehicles tend to require less energy to run and fewer materials to build, but electric SUVs certainly still favor combustion engine vehicles.
By 2022, ICE SUVs will emit more than 1 Gt of CO2, far exceeding the 80 Mt net emission reduction of electric vehicles this year. While total car sales will fall by 0.5% in 2022, SUV sales will grow by 3% compared to 2021, accounting for about 45% of total car sales, with significant growth coming from the US, India and Europe. Of the 1,300 ICE vehicles available by 2022, more than 40% will be SUVs, compared to less than 35% of small and medium-sized vehicles. The total number of available ICE options is decreasing from 2016 to 2022, but only for small and medium-sized vehicles (35% decrease), while it is increasing for large cars and SUVs (10% increase).
A similar trend is observed in the electric vehicle market. About 16% of all SUVs sold by 2022 will be EVs, which exceeds the overall market share of EVs, indicating consumer preference for SUVs, whether they are internal combustion or electric vehicles. By 2022, nearly 40% of all electric vehicle models will be SUVs, equivalent to the combined share of small and medium-sized vehicles. More than 15% fell to the share of other large models. Just three years ago, in 2019, small and mid-size models accounted for 60% of all available models, with SUVs only 30%.
In China and Europe, SUVs and large models will make up 60 percent of the existing BEV selection by 2022, in line with the global average. In contrast, SUVs and large ICE models make up about 70 percent of ICE models available in these regions, suggesting that EVs are currently still somewhat smaller than their ICE counterparts. Statements from some major European automakers suggest there could be increased focus on smaller but more popular models in the coming years. For example, Volkswagen has announced that it will launch a sub-€25,000 compact model in the European market by 2025 and a sub-€20,000 compact model in 2026-27 to appeal to a wider range of consumers. In the US, more than 80% of available BEV options will be SUVs or large models by 2022, higher than the 70% share of SUVs or large ICE models. Looking ahead, if the recent announcement to expand IRA incentives to more SUVs comes to fruition, expect to see more electric SUVs in the US. Under the IRA, the US Department of the Treasury was revising vehicle classification and in 2023 changed the eligibility criteria for clean vehicle loans associated with small SUVs, now eligible if the price is under $80,000 from the previous cap. at $55,000. .
Electric vehicle sales in China have been boosted by continued political support and lower retail prices. In 2022, the weighted average sales price of small electric vehicles in China will be less than $10,000, well below the level of over $30,000 in the same year when the weighted average sales price of small electric vehicles in Europe and the United States exceeds $30,000.
In China, the best-selling electric vehicles in 2022 will be the Wuling Mini BEV, a small car priced under $6,500, and a BYD Dolphin small car priced under $16,000. Together, the two models account for almost 15 percent of China’s growth in passenger electric vehicle sales, illustrating the demand for smaller models. In comparison, the best-selling small all-electric cars in France, Germany and the UK – the Fiat 500, Peugeot e-208 and Renault Zoe – cost over $35,000. Very few small all-electric vehicles are sold in the US, mainly the Chevrolet Bolt and Mini Cooper BEV, which cost around $30,000. The Tesla Model Y is the best-selling passenger car BEV in some European countries (over $65,000) and the United States (over $10,000). 50,000).6
Chinese automakers have focused on developing smaller, more affordable models, ahead of their international counterparts, cutting costs after years of intense domestic competition. Since the 2000s, hundreds of small electric vehicle manufacturers have entered the market, benefiting from a variety of government support programs, including subsidies and incentives for consumers and manufacturers. Most of these companies were pushed out of competition as subsidies were removed and the market has since consolidated with a dozen leaders who have successfully developed small and cheap electric vehicles for the Chinese market. The vertical integration of the battery and electric vehicle supply chain, from mineral processing to battery and electric vehicle manufacturing, and access to cheaper labor, manufacturing and financing across the board are also driving the development of cheaper models.
Meanwhile, automakers in Europe and the US – whether early developers like Tesla or existing big players – have so far largely focused on larger, more luxurious models, thereby offering little to the mass market. However, the smaller variants available in these countries often offer better performance than those in China, such as longer range. In 2022, the sales-weighted average mileage of small electric vehicles sold in the US will approach 350 kilometers, while in France, Germany and the UK this figure will be just under 300 kilometers, and in China this figure is less. over 220 kilometers. In other segments, the differences are less significant. The popularity of public charging stations in China may partly explain why Chinese consumers are more likely to opt for a lower range than European or American consumers.
Tesla cut prices on its models twice in 2022 as competition intensifies and many automakers have announced cheaper options for the next few years. While these claims merit further study, this trend may indicate that the price gap between small electric vehicles and existing combustion engine vehicles may gradually close over the course of a decade.
By 2022, the three largest electric vehicle markets – China, Europe and the US – will account for about 95% of global sales. Emerging Markets and Emerging Economies (EMDEs) outside of China account for only a small portion of the global electric vehicle market. Demand for electric vehicles has increased in recent years, but sales remain low.
While emerging markets and developing countries are often quick to adopt low-cost latest technology products such as smartphones, computers and connected devices, electric vehicles remain too expensive for most people. According to a recent survey, more than 50 percent of respondents in Ghana would rather buy an electric car than a combustion engine car, but more than half of those potential consumers are unwilling to spend more than $20,000 on an electric car. A barrier can be the lack of reliable and affordable charging, as well as the limited ability to service, repair and maintain electric vehicles. In most emerging market and developing countries, road transport is still heavily based on small transport solutions in urban centers such as two- and three-wheelers, which are making great strides in electrification and co-mobility to succeed in regional trips to work. Buying behavior is also different, with private car ownership lower and used car buying more common. Looking ahead, while sales of electric vehicles (both new and used) in emerging market and developing countries are expected to grow, many countries are likely to continue to rely primarily on two- and three-wheelers. means (see cars in this report).part) ).
In 2022, there will be a significant boom in electric vehicles in India, Thailand and Indonesia. Collectively, EV sales in these countries have more than tripled since 2021 to almost 80,000. Sales in 2022 are seven times higher than in 2019 before the Covid-19 pandemic. In contrast, sales in other emerging markets and developing countries were lower.
In India, EV sales will reach almost 50,000 in 2022, four times more than in 2021, and total vehicle sales will grow by just under 15%. Leading domestic manufacturer Tata accounted for more than 85% of BEV sales, while sales of the small BEV Tigor/Tiago quadrupled. Sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles in India are still close to zero. New electric vehicle companies are now betting on the government’s Production Incentive Scheme (PLI), a roughly $2 billion subsidy program aimed at expanding the production of electric vehicles and their components. The program has attracted a total investment of US$8.3 billion.
However, the Indian market is currently still focused on shared and small mobility. By 2022, 25% of EV purchases in India will be made by fleet operators such as taxis. In early 2023, Tata received a large order from Uber for 25,000 electric vehicles. Also, while 55% of the three-wheelers sold are electric vehicles, less than 2% of the vehicles sold are electric vehicles. Ola, India’s largest electric vehicle company by revenue, does not yet offer electric vehicles. Ola, which instead focuses on low mobility, aims to double its electric two-wheeler capacity to 2 million by the end of 2023 and reach an annual capacity of 10 million between 2025 and 2028. The company also plans to build a lithium-ion battery plant with an initial capacity of 5 GWh, with an expansion to 100 GWh by 2030. Ola plans to start selling electric vehicles for its taxi business by 2024 and fully electrify its taxi fleet by 2029, while launching its own premium and mass-market electric vehicle business. The company has announced an investment of over $900 million in battery and electric vehicle manufacturing in southern India and has increased annual production from 100,000 to 140,000 vehicles.
In Thailand, EV sales doubled to 21,000 units, with sales split evenly between pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids. The growth in the number of Chinese automakers has accelerated the adoption of electric vehicles in the country. In 2021, Great Wall Motors, a Chinese main engine manufacturer (OEM), introduced the Euler Haomao BEV to the Thai market, which will become the best-selling electric vehicle in Thailand in 2022 with sales of around 4,000 units. The second and third most popular vehicles are also Chinese vehicles manufactured by the Shanghai Automotive Industry (SAIC), none of which were sold in Thailand in 2020. Chinese automakers have been able to drive down the price of electric vehicles from foreign competitors that have also entered the Thai market, such as BMW and Mercedes, thereby attracting a wider consumer base. In addition, the Thai government offers various financial incentives for electric vehicles, including subsidies, excise tax relief, and import tax relief, which could help increase the attractiveness of electric vehicles. Tesla plans to enter the Thai market in 2023 and enter the production of superchargers.
In Indonesia, sales of pure electric vehicles increased more than 14 times to over 10,000 units, while sales of plug-in hybrids remained close to zero. In March 2023, Indonesia announced new incentives to support the sales of electric two-wheelers, cars and buses, aimed at strengthening domestic electric vehicle and battery production capacity through local component requirements. The government plans to subsidize the sales of 200,000 electric two-wheelers and 36,000 electric vehicles by 2023 with sales shares of 4 percent and 5 percent, respectively. The new subsidy could cut the prices of electric two-wheelers by 25-50% to help them compete with their ICE counterparts. Indonesia plays an important role in the electric vehicle and battery supply chain, especially given its rich mineral resources and status as the world’s largest producer of nickel ore. This has attracted investment from global companies, and Indonesia could become the region’s largest center for the production of batteries and components.
Model availability remains a challenge in emerging markets and developing countries, with many models sold primarily to premium segments such as SUVs and large luxury models. While SUVs are a global trend, limited purchasing power in emerging markets and developing countries makes such vehicles virtually unaffordable. In the various regions covered in this section of the report, there are a total of more than 60 emerging market and developing countries, including those supported by the Global Environment Facility’s (GEF) Global Electric Mobility Program, where the number of large vehicle models available funds by 2022 will be two to six times more than small businesses.
In Africa, the best-selling electric vehicle model in 2022 will be the Hyundai Kona (pure electric crossover), while Porsche’s large and expensive Taycan BEV has a sales record roughly equal to Nissan’s midsize Leaf BEV. Electric SUVs also sell eight times more than the two best-selling small electric vehicles combined: the Mini Cooper SE BEV and Renault Zoe BEV. In India, the top-selling EV model is the Tata Nexon BEV crossover, with over 32,000 units sold, three times more than the next best-selling model, Tata’s small Tigor/Tiago BEV. In all of the emerging markets and developing countries covered here, sales of electric SUVs reached 45,000 units, more than sales of small (23,000) and midsize (16,000) electric vehicles combined. In Costa Rica, which has the largest EV sales in Latin America, only four of the top 20 models are non-SUVs, and almost a third are luxury models. The future of mass electrification in emerging markets and developing countries depends on the development of smaller and more affordable electric vehicles, as well as two- and three-wheelers.
An important difference in evaluating the development of the automotive market is the difference between registration and sales. New registration refers to the number of vehicles officially registered with the relevant government departments or insurance agencies for the first time, including domestic and imported vehicles. Sales volume may refer to vehicles sold by dealers or dealers (retail sales), or vehicles sold by car manufacturers to dealers (ex works, i.e. including exports). When analyzing the automotive market, the choice of indicators can be of great importance. To ensure consistent accounting across all countries and avoid double counting globally, the size of the vehicle market in this report is based on new vehicle registrations (if any) and retail sales, not factory deliveries.
The importance of this is well illustrated by the trends of the Chinese car market in 2022. Factory deliveries (counted as sales volume) in China’s passenger car market are reported to grow by 7% to 10% in 2022, while insurance company registrations show a sluggish domestic market in the same year. The increase was seen in data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), the official data source for China’s auto industry. CAAM data is collected from vehicle manufacturers and represents factory deliveries. Another widely cited source is the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), a non-governmental organization that wholesales, retails, and exports cars, but is not authorized to provide national statistics and does not cover all OEMs, while CAAM does. . The China Automotive Technology and Research Center (CATARC), a government think tank, collects vehicle production data based on vehicle identification numbers and vehicle sales numbers based on vehicle insurance registration data. In China, vehicle insurance is issued for the vehicle itself, not for the individual driver, so it is useful for keeping track of the number of vehicles on the road, including imported ones. The main discrepancies between CATARC data and other sources are related to exported and unregistered military or other equipment, as well as to the stocks of automakers.
The rapid growth in total passenger car exports in 2022 makes the differences between these data sources even more pronounced. In 2022, passenger car exports will increase by almost 60% to over 2.5 million units, while passenger car imports will decrease by almost 20% (from 950,000 to 770,000 units).
Post time: Sep-01-2023